Making Choices That Count: A Simple Decision -Making Framework for Complicated Problems

Think about the different kinds of challenges that you face as a leader in health and social services. Sometimes, what you need to do to address the challenge is obvious, based on clear cause and effect – we know what works, and we just need to do it. Other times, the situation is more complicated, with multiple interacting parts, and while we might not have one right answer, we can analyze and find good solutions. And then there are those truly complex situations, where the connections aren’t clear, and we need to probe, learn as we go, and adapt.

The Cynefin framework offers a helpful way to think about these different “domains” of problems. In the Simple domain, the rational decision-making model would be overkill – you already know the best practice. In the Complicated domain, a rational step-by-step approach to decision making really shines – you need to analyze the different pieces and weigh your options carefully to get to a good answer. This is where clearly defining the problem, establishing criteria, and evaluating alternatives becomes crucial. In the Complex domain, where cause and effect are murky and unpredictable, a more developmental, emergent approach – like probing, sensing, and then responding – is often more effective. Trying to force a purely rational, linear decision-making process onto a complex problem might lead to frustration and ineffective solutions. Similarly, in a Chaotic domain, the immediate priority is to establish stability rather than engaging in lengthy rational analysis, so immediate action is needed.

So many leadership decisions in the health and social services fall into the Complicated domain of the Cynefin model, where there isn’t one obvious “best” answer, but rather several potentially good options that require careful analysis and weighing of different factors. Think about designing a new program to address youth homelessness, where you need to consider various service delivery models, funding streams, partnerships with other agencies, and the specific needs of the target population. Or consider implementing a new electronic health record system, which involves evaluating different platforms, assessing integration with existing systems, training staff, and anticipating potential challenges. Even developing a strategy to improve client engagement requires analyzing different outreach methods, communication styles, and understanding the barriers clients face in accessing services. In each of these scenarios, careful consideration of multiple variables and a structured approach are essential to arrive at an effective solution.

The rational decision-making model is a leader’s go-to tool for challenges that fall into the Complicated domain. It’s about taking a deliberate, disciplined approach to decision making.  

So, What’s This “Rational Decision-Making” Thing, Really?

It’s a step-by-step process to arrive at a decision. The steps are:  

  1. Get Crystal Clear on the Problem: What’s the real issue we’re trying to solve?
  2. Establish Decision Criteria by Figuring Out What Truly Matters: What are the things we absolutely need in a solution? What would be nice to have?
  3. Weigh your Decision Criteria by Deciding What’s Most Important: Which of those “must-haves” are non-negotiable? Which of these will weigh more strongly in our decision than others? 
  4. Generate Alternatives by Brainstorm All Our Ideas: Let’s get every possible solution out there, even the ones that seem a little out there at first.
  5. Evaluate Alternatives to See How Each Idea Stacks Up: How well does each option meet our decision criteria? 
  6. Choose the One That Fits Best: Based on our careful look, which option makes the most sense for us?
  7. Implement! Put It Into Action: Let’s get started and make it happen!
  8. Evaluate Decision and Take a Look Back: Did it work the way we hoped? What did we learn for the future?
The Decision Making Process

The Payoff: Smoother Discussions and Decisions That Stick

We know you might be thinking: “Ok, this model sounds cool, but it also sounds like it is a lot of work and takes a lot of time upfront.” And… you’re not wrong. Taking the time to clearly define the problem, establish criteria, and thoughtfully evaluate options does require an initial investment of energy and time.

However, think of it as laying a solid foundation. By doing this groundwork, you set your team up for much more productive discussions. Instead of going in circles, rehashing the same points over and over, you have a clear framework to guide the conversation. Everyone is working from the same understanding of the problem and the criteria for success.

The beauty of this approach is that it leads to real, clear decisions that the group can actually get behind. Because you have engaged your team in the process of generating alternatives and evaluating the options against agreed-upon criteria, there’s a shared understanding of why a particular decision was made. It means fewer lingering doubts and more energy focused on implementation.

Ultimately, while it might take a bit more effort at the beginning, using the rational decision-making model can significantly reduce the need to revisit decisions endlessly. You have a clear rationale to point back to, rooted in your agreed-upon criteria and evaluation. This saves time and energy in the long run, allowing your team to move forward with confidence and focus on what truly matters: serving your community.

Where We Sometimes Go Off Track (and Why It’s a Big Deal)

We get it – things are hectic. Sometimes, when you’re under pressure, it’s tempting to skip a few steps. Maybe you jump to a solution that feels familiar without really digging into the root of the problem. Or perhaps you don’t take the time to really explore all the possibilities.

But when we skip these steps, we risk ending up with solutions that don’t actually solve the core issue. We might waste precious time and resources, or worse, we might not be providing the best possible support to the people who count on us.

A Real-Life Example: Tackling Long Wait Times

Imagine your team is struggling with clients having to wait too long for appointments. This often falls into the Complicated domain – there isn’t one simple fix, but careful analysis of different factors can lead to effective solutions. Here’s how this step-by-step thinking could help:

  1. Get Crystal Clear on the Problem: Clients are waiting way too long, and it’s causing frustration and exacerbating the issues they’re waiting to have addressed.
  2. Establish Decision Criteria by Figuring Out What Truly Matters: We will evaluate our potential alternatives by considering their impact on: wait times, client satisfaction, staff workload, and fiscal responsibility. 
  3. Weigh your Decision Criteria by Deciding What’s Most Important: Getting those wait times down and making clients happier are our biggest goals. Looking after our team and our budget are also super important.We’re going to weigh each criteria as follows:
    1. Impact on wait times (30%)
    2. Impact on client satisfaction (30%) 
    3. Impact on staff workload (20%) 
    4. Impact on fiscal responsibility (20%) 
  4. Generate Alternatives by Brainstorm All Our Ideas: What if we hired more folks? What if we got a better scheduling system? What if we made our initial paperwork simpler? What if we offered some appointments online?
  5. Evaluate Alternatives to See How Each Idea Stacks Up: We take a hard look at each idea against our evaluation criteria. 
IdeaWait times(x/30)Client Satisfaction(x/30)Workload(x/20)Fiscal Responsibility(x/20)Total Score(x/100)
Hire 2 more people 202520065
Streamline paperwork1515202070
Online appointment and scheduling tool15302020
(already included in our  client software!)
95
  1. Our Choice: After weighing everything, we decide to try a new online appointment and scheduling tool and simplify our intake forms. It seems like the best way to tackle the wait times without burning out our team or breaking the bank.
  2. Making It Happen: We get the new systems set up and train everyone on the new process.
  3. Checking In: After a few months, we look at the numbers – are wait times down? What are clients saying? How are staff experiencing their work load? How is our budget looking? What can we learn for next time?

Taking a moment to plan and using a framework like this might feel a little slower in the moment, but it can really help leaders make smarter, more thoughtful choices that lead to better results for everyone we serve. It’s about making sure we’re truly addressing the big challenges in health and social services in a way that makes a real difference.

Now, we’d love to hear from you:

What’s one area in your work where you think taking a more structured, rational approach to decision-making could lead to better outcomes for your team or the people you serve? Share your thoughts in the comments below!

Learn More:

  • The Cynefin Framework: You can explore the Cynefin framework further at https://thecynefin.co/about-us/about-cynefin-framework/
  • The Foundations of Rational Decision-Making: The concept of rational decision-making in organizational contexts was significantly shaped by the work of Herbert A. Simon. You can explore his ideas further in this paper “A behavioral model of rational choice” (1955) in The Quarterly Journal of Economics also provides key insights into this area. (https://www.jstor.org/stable/1884852Note: This link may require a subscription to access the full article.)